ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is expanding at a pace that its infrastructure cannot sustain, with demand projected to climb 8–8.5% annually even as domestic production stagnates and storage and transport systems remain critically deficient, according to Petroleum Division documents.
The warning comes as volatility in global energy markets and regional tensions push up prices and lay bare the structural weaknesses in the country’s energy security landscape. While the immediate LPG crunch is partly a product of border closures, it has also exposed deeper vulnerabilities in the sustainability of the market.
A Widening Supply-Demand Gap
More than 10 million households in Pakistan are connected to the natural gas pipeline network, while over 25 million rely on LPG and other fuels to meet their energy needs. A rising population and declining domestic natural gas production are driving demand sharply upward.
The national LPG market currently stands at approximately 2.4 million metric tonnes, having recorded an average annual growth rate of 7.5% over the past six years. Demand is forecast to reach 4.16 million metric tonnes by fiscal year 2032-33. In comparison, domestic production is expected to rise only marginally, from 0.96 million metric tonnes to 1.35 million metric tonnes over the same period.
The widening gap will have to be bridged through imports, which are projected to increase from 1.4 million metric tonnes to 2.8 million metric tonnes by 2033.
Infrastructure Deficiencies Raise Safety Concerns
Pakistan’s existing LPG infrastructure is riddled with shortcomings. Inspections by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP) found no quality-testing facilities at any land entry point in Taftan.
- Several explosions have occurred since 2020 due to the transfer of LPG between tankers at border crossings without adequate safety arrangements.
- An estimated 56% of LPG transportation bowsers operating in Pakistan are unregistered.
- Total storage capacity stands at roughly 70,000 metric tonnes — 14,000 at seaports and 56,000 inland — insufficient for the country’s growing requirements.
The two existing LPG terminals at Port Qasim, each with a storage capacity of approximately 6,500 metric tonnes, can accommodate vessels of up to 10,000 deadweight tonnes. That is well below international standards, where LPG vessels typically range from 30,000 to 50,000 DWT.
Ports lack additional storage facilities, and no inland pipeline network exists for LPG transportation. As a result, seaborne LPG imports account for only 16% of the country’s total supply.
Investment Needed to Avert Crisis
The documents stress that meeting Pakistan’s projected LPG demand by fiscal year 2035-36 will require substantial investment in terminal infrastructure, storage capacity, cylinder-filling facilities and transportation capabilities.
Without such investment, the country’s reliance on imports — and its exposure to regional disruptions and global price shocks — is set to deepen, leaving millions of households increasingly vulnerable to supply interruptions.
