ENGLISHLUG: wmo-warns-strong-el-nino-rapid-development
The world is on the brink of a powerful climate shift as the El Niño phenomenon rapidly intensifies, threatening to trigger a cascade of extreme weather events across the globe. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stark warning on Friday, confirming that El Niño conditions are already present and are forecast to escalate into a strong event within months.
A Rapid and Significant Intensification
According to the WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the transition from neutral conditions to a strong El Niño will be swift. The agency predicts a “rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September,” placing it at the third-highest intensity level on a four-tier scale. This natural climate phenomenon, characterized by the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, alters global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
“El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of … extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO stated. The agency highlighted that multiple leading global climate centers show “remarkable agreement” in their models, providing high confidence in the outlook. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in key monitoring regions are expected to exceed 2°C.
Heightened Risks of Heatwaves, Drought, and Flooding
Specific regional impacts are already coming into focus. The July to September rainfall outlook, consistent with a maturing El Niño, points to above-normal rainfall in areas like the southwestern United States, while the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia face the threat of below-normal precipitation.
A Global Temperature Surge on the Horizon
The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, a band that encompasses nearly all populated regions outside the polar zones. While El Niño itself is a natural occurrence, the WMO notes that climate change can amplify its effects, as a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Historically, El Niño’s peak warming influence on global temperatures often lags behind its oceanic peak. The last major El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record and propelled 2024 to an all-time high of approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. The current event is expected to continue strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending globally. Furthermore, during the northern summer, the warm waters can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing their formation in the Atlantic.
“Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” Saulo stressed, urging nations to brace for the impending climate shock.
