War Offers Path to Redemption or Ruin for Long-Serving Leader
With Israeli elections mandated by late October, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a critical juncture as the war with Iran unfolds. Analysts suggest the conflict presents an opportunity to rehabilitate an image severely damaged by the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, but caution that the political payoff is precarious and dependent on the war’s duration and outcome.
Netanyahu, 76, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held office for over 18 cumulative years. His popularity, however, was eroded by the Gaza war, with critics accusing him of evading responsibility for security failures. Currently governing without a parliamentary majority and standing trial in a corruption case, his political resilience is being tested anew.
Election Calculus and the “Total Victory” Strategy
Elections must be held by October 27, but experts predict Netanyahu will call an early vote. “He won’t wait until October given the commemoration of the October 7 anniversary,” said Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University. Recent opinion polls indicate a Likud party led by Netanyahu would emerge ahead if an election were held today, though he would still struggle to form a majority coalition with his current allies.
The offensive against Iran is central to Netanyahu’s strategy. “This offensive undeniably reinforces the image Netanyahu seeks to cultivate, the one associated with his ‘total victory’ slogan,” independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP. The Prime Minister has framed the strikes as the culmination of a 40-year aspiration to decisively strike the “terrorist regime,” crediting close ties with Washington.
Potential Pitfalls and Public Sentiment
However, the narrative of victory is contested. Raviv Druker, a prominent journalist, argued that Netanyahu “will try to convince people that the victory is total even if that is an illusion,” noting that “Hamas still runs Gaza, and Iran remains Iran.” Some analysts have even suggested the timing of hostilities may be linked to domestic political deadlines, such as avoiding a government collapse over a budget impasse.
The war’s longevity poses a significant risk. “Public tolerance for a long war with heavy casualties, combined with a high cost of living, remains extremely low,” Horowitz warned. While Israeli military resilience is widely praised, this popularity does not necessarily transfer to the Prime Minister. “The army’s popularity is rising, not necessarily Netanyahu’s,” Horowitz noted.
A Legacy in the Balance
Netanyahu’s future now hinges on a volatile conflict. A swift, perceived success against Iran could deliver a potent political victory, bolstering his campaign. Conversely, a protracted war with mounting casualties could shatter his electoral prospects. As Israel navigates its most severe regional confrontation in decades, the Prime Minister’s four-decade political career faces its most definitive verdict yet.
