The absence of a 2027 budget will not only complicate the final months of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency but will also place the next executive team in a deeply precarious position. This is the central finding of a report commissioned by the government from the Inspection générale des finances (IGF), designed to prepare for the budgetary sequence set to begin this autumn.
Published on Thursday, August 20, the IGF report specifically examines the consequences of resorting to a special law in the event that no finance bill is passed by December 31, 2026. A special law, as a reminder, carries over the previous year’s revenues and authorizes only the spending essential for the continuity of the state. It has been used several times in recent years, but typically for short periods.
A Year of Paralysis, Not Six Weeks
However, between the presidential election in spring 2027 and the likely legislative elections that follow, a special law could remain in force for nearly a year, instead of the six weeks seen in previous instances. Such a prolonged application would impose severe budgetary constraints on the newly elected president and their prime minister, according to the IGF.
“This prolonged application would expose the country to certain difficulties and, in some respects, to major risks,” the public institution warns in its report. It states bluntly that “the recovery of public finances would be impossible under a special law.” Jérôme Fournel, the inspector general of finances who supervised the mission, told AFP that the economic world would face a “much higher level of uncertainty,” alongside the risk of increased state borrowing costs.
Defense, Agriculture, and Construction Hit Hardest
The report dedicates an entire section to the degraded situation awaiting Macron’s successor. “The exit from the special law would be all the more problematic for the new government since the economic and budgetary situation it will inherit will be degraded due to the period of voted services,” the authors write.
They highlight that several sectors would be severely affected by a prolonged special law due to their dependence on public procurement or state aid. Defense programs would face delays, farmers would be deprived of certain subsidies, and the construction industry would suffer from a freeze on major projects and aid schemes like MaPrimeRénov. The minister’s office also notes that “all investment projects necessary for the 2030 Olympics” are cited as examples of initiatives that would come to a halt.
No Room for Crisis Response
Furthermore, resorting to a special law would prevent the next government from using an amending finance law, which requires a prior vote on an initial finance bill. “The special law would limit even more strongly the government’s capacity to intervene in the face of a major crisis requiring a rapid budgetary response,” the report states.
Jérôme Fournel echoed this concern to AFP, stating, “We know how to manage small crises under a special law, but we would probably manage larger crises very poorly.” The IGF adds that even the last-resort tool mentioned in the report, an ungagged advance decree under Article 13 of the public finance law, “would not allow for the implementation of mechanisms such as the guarantees established in response to the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 health crisis, new measures, or targeted tax exemptions.”
Political Pressure Mounts
These arguments will be at the Prime Minister’s disposal when debates open. On August 20, Sébastien Lecornu took to X to deny several eruptive rumors about the text’s content, including a purported elimination of housing aid. The government has also revised its plan regarding the announced doubling of the medical deductible cap. In parallel, the Prime Minister has chosen to include in the budgetary texts certain support measures taken after the summer fires, a move designed to pressure the opposition.
