If one swallow does not make a summer, can a Dantean summer pave the way for a future election? That is the question looming in the mind of Sébastien Lecornu, whose political ambitions continue to intrigue the Parisian establishment just seven months before the first round of the presidential election.
A “Monk-Soldier” Faces a Gauntlet of Crises
For the Prime Minister, who nicknamed himself the “monk-soldier” upon his arrival at Matignon, the summer took on the air of a via crucis. Buffeted by the Lyhanna affair in June and the subsequent debates on the protection of minors, the government and its leader had to respond to a barrage of increasingly delicate crises throughout the season.
There was the early heatwave, repeated heatwaves, concerns about monster wildfires, an unprecedented drought, and, most recently, numerous data leaks from public administrations. Each time, Lecornu stepped into the front line to defend the record of the President of the Republic—attacked from all sides—and to propose action plans.
The Élysée’s Chosen Candidate?
This week, he announced €100 million in aid for reconstruction strategies in the Gironde, a department devastated by July’s megafire. A few days later, he promised the creation of a task force designed to respond to the growing threat of cyberattacks. Are these sensitive issues enough to make him a statesman? And a fallback option within his own camp for the big election?
The head of government remains silent on his true ambitions. “I do not get involved in the presidential election. However, I ask in return that the candidates for the presidential election do not hinder the government’s action,” he stated in July, in the columns of Paris Match, after taking a few jabs at the various contenders, whom he considers guilty of not taking the campaign seriously.
But as the summer ends, some are speaking on his behalf. Whether in Macron’s camp or within the President’s inner circle. He has this “reassuring profile,” one who “assumes the truth without partisan ulterior motives,” enthused a Renaissance MP, for whom Lecornu “demonstrates every day that he is the best possible candidate against populism.” Nothing less… This sentiment is echoed by those close to Emmanuel Macron, who are often very laudatory about the qualities of the current occupant of Matignon.
In reality, some suspect the President of the Republic and his Élysée entourage are the primary architects of this narrative. The head of state reportedly views the campaigns of Edouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal with considerable distrust, given the distancing of the two contenders—the only declared candidates within the central bloc. According to press accounts, he would therefore be particularly favorable to the emergence of an alternative solution. And who better than the Prime Minister he has wanted to install at the helm since 2024?
Nothing Will Be Simple
One of the most eloquent compliments this summer came from Nobel Prize-winning economist Philippe Aghion, a long-time close associate of the President. As Lecornu delivered a well-received speech at the economic meetings in Aix-en-Provence in early July, the man who was one of the gray eminences behind Macron’s 2017 program told the press: “I had the feeling I was standing before a President of the Republic. I felt he had that breath.” Is that enough to be the heir to a decade of power?
Despite these supports, which are difficult to quantify within the central bloc, the obstacles will be numerous for the Prime Minister if he wishes to play the leading role in the coming weeks. First, nothing indicates he would fare better than the two declared candidates within the central bloc. Opinion polls are certainly interesting for the occupant of Matignon, but not thunderous. And why would these two leaders, already at full speed, withdraw to make way for him?
Furthermore, Lecornu has not finished with the horribilis seasons. After these summer months, which did not significantly affect his popularity rating, come those of the budget and unpopular decisions. The occupant of Matignon is indeed preparing a bitter potion to curb the slippage of public accounts. He could, for example, decide to de-index the highest retirement pensions from inflation, according to one of the options currently under study at Bercy.
This is a measure generally costly in public opinion, and then at the ballot box, as it affects a segment of the population particularly mobilized during elections. Therefore, it is perhaps in light of this decision that we will be able to judge the future ambitions of the “monk-soldier.” If he hopes for nothing from the months to come, Lecornu can break this taboo without risking the consequences in the spring of 2027. Otherwise…
