Latvian citizens head to the polls Saturday to elect 100 deputies to the Saeima, the country’s unicameral parliament, in a vote defined by one overriding concern: national security. Sharing a border with both Russia and Belarus, the Baltic nation has placed defense at the center of its political debate after months of mounting tensions linked to the war in Ukraine.
Drone Incursions Expose Airspace Vulnerabilities
In recent months, as drone attacks between Ukrainian and Russian forces have multiplied, Latvia has experienced frequent incursions into its airspace. Latvian military forces and NATO’s air policing mission have been repeatedly scrambled on emergency deployments.
On May 7, 2026, two Ukrainian drones — likely diverted by a Russian jamming system — crashed in eastern Latvia. One struck an oil storage facility, sparking a fire that was quickly extinguished. The incident triggered a political crisis.
Prime Minister Evika Silina immediately declared that Defense Minister Andris Spruds had “lost both her confidence and that of the public.” Spruds, an academic and foreign policy researcher representing the center-left, social-democratic and green Progressive Party, had promised Latvians to “guarantee a safe sky.” He resigned on the spot. Four days later, the entire government was forced to step down.
New Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, a member of the centrist, agrarian Union of Greens and Farmers, was appointed on May 28. He named a military officer, Colonel Raivis Melnis, as defense minister.
Security: Latvia’s Number One Concern
Security has become the defining mission of the new government. Together with its Estonian and Lithuanian neighbors, Latvia is building a “Baltic Defense Line” — a system of physical fortifications including bunkers and anti-tank obstacles along the eastern border.
On September 22, the new prime minister announced that France had agreed to open discussions with Riga on its participation in advanced nuclear deterrence.
Today, the importance of national defense commands consensus among Latvia’s major democratic parties. All agree on the need to devote nearly 5% of GDP to defense spending — one of the highest targets in NATO.
Moscow’s Attempts to Manipulate the Russophone Minority
Latvia must nonetheless contend with its sizable russophone minority — Russians and Ukrainians — who make up roughly a quarter of the population and whom Moscow has persistently sought to instrumentalize.
In recent years, Latvia has implemented reforms aimed at limiting destabilization attempts from its eastern neighbor. These include ending Russian-language-only schooling and mandating the use of Latvian in media and public services. Latvian intelligence services remain wary of a small but active minority.
Riding on the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the far-right russophone party “Sovereign Power – Young Latvians” appears to be gaining support. The party is particularly appealing in Latgale, a poor region in eastern Latvia bordering Belarus and Russia, where voters are anxious about economic hardship and the cost of aid to Ukraine.
Amid disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks, Latvian security services have intensified surveillance throughout the election campaign.
A Vote with Regional Implications
Saturday’s election carries significance beyond Latvia’s borders. As a frontline NATO state, the country’s political direction will signal how the Baltic region intends to confront an increasingly assertive Russia — and how far its voters are willing to prioritize security over other concerns.
