ISLAMABAD — Pakistani energy authorities are urgently formulating a contingency plan to manage a potential gas shortfall after QatarEnergy suspended liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. The halt follows recent missile attacks from Iran and disruptions to shipping in the critical Strait of Hormuz, exposing the nation’s heavy reliance on imported fuel.
Immediate Measures and Alternative Supplies
Officials told The News that the government will immediately restore 350 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of previously curtailed local gas to bolster the system. This gas had been reduced to manage pipeline pressure. Authorities are also considering boosting domestic oil and gas production.
As a key alternative, the government is evaluating a pivot to the Socar Trading Company of Azerbaijan to source 200–250 MMcf/d of LNG if domestic consumption rises unexpectedly. A final plan is expected within days.
Disrupted Contracts and Market Vulnerabilities
Under normal long-term agreements, Pakistan imports nine LNG cargoes per month from Qatar and one from Italian firm ENI. However, earlier arrangements had already diverted some of this supply away for 2026, anticipating lower domestic demand.
“Every Gulf crisis exposes our over-reliance on imported LNG and crude,” a senior energy analyst warned. “When choke points like the Strait of Hormuz are threatened, Pakistan has almost no buffer.”
Socar Agreement Offers a Lifeline
Pakistan can purchase required LNG cargoes from Socar under a one-year agreement signed in July 2023, which is extendable. Socar may offer cargoes with a 45-day advance notice for Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) to accept.
However, officials caution that Socar’s existing commitments to other Asian buyers, including China, Japan, and India, could limit availability. Furthermore, LNG previously diverted from ENI cannot be restored.
Managing Demand and Systemic Risks
A senior official noted that lower seasonal demand for heating and cooling in March should keep gas consumption manageable, with electricity demand also unlikely to spike. The government’s priority is to shield domestic consumers, meaning industrial and commercial users could face extended gas load-shedding in case of a sudden surge.
The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran places Islamabad in a delicate position. Policymakers must balance restoring local gas, securing alternative LNG, and managing demand—all while navigating a tight global market that may lack spare capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs.
This episode has starkly highlighted the structural vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s energy supply chain, prompting urgent calls for a more resilient strategy.
