The Pakistani rupee is forecast to remain stable with potential for slight appreciation in the coming weeks, bolstered by seasonal inflows of worker remittances during the holy month of Ramadan and ahead of Eid, according to a financial analysis.
Currency Holds Steady Amid IMF Talks
The rupee traded within a narrow band in the interbank market this past week, closing at 279.55 against the US dollar on Monday and edging slightly to 279.47 by Friday. This stability comes as an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team commenced talks with Pakistani authorities for the third review of a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review of a $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Successful completion of these reviews would unlock approximately $1.2 billion in financing for Pakistan by late April.
Remittance Inflows Provide Critical Support
Financial platform Tresmark, in a client note, highlighted that the rupee has appreciated by roughly 60 paisa since the start of the year. This gain is notable given a challenging backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, including new conflict in the region, internal security concerns, and persistent economic pressures like a widening trade deficit.
“Seasonal remittance inflows around Ramadan and Eid are likely to keep the rupee well bid in the near term,” the Tresmark report stated. Data shows remittances rose 15.4% year-on-year in January to $3.5 billion, contributing to an 11.3% increase to $23.2 billion for the first seven months of fiscal year 2026, despite a slight month-on-month dip.
Stability Defies Broader Economic Challenges
The report noted that the rupee’s firmness appears somewhat counterintuitive to many economists who see limited structural benefit from further appreciation. Nevertheless, the currency has shown resilience. Tresmark advised exporters with tight costing to consider forward contracts, as the rupee outlook appears “stable to slightly stronger.”
This stability is not an isolated case. The report pointed out that several other emerging market currencies backed by reforms or high carry, such as the Egyptian pound and Indonesian rupiah, have also held firm despite global geopolitical uncertainties.
