Washington and Caracas announced Friday they have concluded what they called a “historic” oil agreement, one that would see the United States take majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s reserves. In a message posted on Truth Social, President Donald Trump called it “the greatest oil deal in world history,” claiming it would double US oil reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the agreement on X, saying it would support “thousands of well-paying jobs” and help rebuild Venezuela’s economy through “nearly $100 billion in private investment.” The announcement comes months after a US military raid in early January led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro, a move that has allowed Trump to push for renewed exploitation of Venezuelan oil and gas resources under American oversight.
A Deal Built on Shaky Political Ground
The agreement faces immediate uncertainty because it was signed with a transitional government. Trump stated the deal was established “in close collaboration” with Delcy Rodriguez, who has served as Venezuela’s interim president since Maduro’s capture. Rodriguez publicly thanked Trump in a statement, but experts caution that her authority may not guarantee the longevity of Caracas’ commitments.
Jorge R. Pinon, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute, warned that a future Venezuelan government could decide to reverse the agreements and abruptly change the “rules of the game” for foreign investors. The political volatility of the region makes the deal’s long-term viability far from certain.
Crumbling Infrastructure and Investor Reluctance
Another major obstacle is the dire state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Years of underinvestment have left facilities severely degraded, requiring massive capital to restore production. Trump is counting on American oil companies to foot the bill, but many remain hesitant.
Past expropriations by the Venezuelan regime have left deep scars. ExxonMobil, for example, was expropriated twice, making major oil firms wary of committing billions of dollars to a country with a history of seizing foreign assets. John Kilduff, an analyst at Again Capital, told AFP that the primary concern in Venezuela has always been “safety and security.” He suggested the US may be trying to create “a kind of state zone where American companies can establish themselves and operate without repercussions,” effectively eliminating the political risk that has historically deterred investment.
Promises of Cheaper Gasoline, but No Timeline
Trump announced the deal would “considerably reduce the price of gasoline for all Americans” and “cost US taxpayers nothing.” However, he did not specify when consumers might see relief at the pump. Experts say it could take years before any new production comes online.
“These are projects that will very certainly take many years before they materialize and bear fruit,” said oil expert Oswaldo Felizzola. Elias Ferrer, founder of the Orinoco Research think tank, described the announcement as “a game of narratives around agreements that were already under negotiation.” He noted that US purchases of Venezuelan crude were “guaranteed” regardless, and that Trump is framing these arrangements as a political victory amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising energy prices.
US strategic petroleum reserves are at their lowest level since 1982, having been heavily tapped to offset supply disruptions and price spikes linked to the war in the Middle East. Venezuela, meanwhile, holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves with over 303 billion barrels, but its production capacity remains severely limited. That reality makes any rapid impact on global oil prices highly unlikely.
The deal, while symbolically significant, remains fragile and dependent on political stability, massive infrastructure investment, and the willingness of private companies to take on substantial risk in a country still recovering from years of crisis.
