PARIS — Fifteen billion euros. That is the figure the French government has been brandishing in recent days to warn of the financial consequences of a prolonged budget blockage next year, as the country heads toward a presidential election. But where does this number come from, and what does it actually represent?
Ministers have been sounding the alarm. Mathieu Lefèvre, the minister delegate for ecological transition, and David Amiel, the minister for public accounts, have both cited the €15 billion figure. Their warnings follow a letter from Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to lawmakers, cautioning against the extended use of a special law to manage public finances in 2027.
The Origin of the €15 Billion Figure
The estimate is not pulled from thin air. It comes from a recent report by the General Inspectorate of Finance (IGF), the French government’s auditing body, which examined the effects of a prolonged application of the special law in 2027. The scenario is extreme: not just a few weeks without a budget, but a special law lasting nine to twelve months, due to the presidential election in mid-April and early May, followed by legislative elections.
Such a situation would be unprecedented. Under the Fifth Republic, a special law has only been used in 1979 and, more recently, in 2025 and 2026 — never for more than six weeks at a time.
How a Special Law Works
A special law is not simply a rollover of the previous budget. Legally, it primarily allows the government to continue collecting taxes. The government then opens credits by decree to cover “voted services” — the minimum deemed essential to keep public services running — within the limits of the previous year’s credits, as stipulated by the 2001 organic law on finance laws.
But the €15 billion figure is what officials call a “static” estimate. It balances spending that would be halted under a special law against spending that would continue to grow spontaneously. According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the debt burden would increase by €11 billion next year, pensions by €12 billion, and health spending by nearly €10 billion. The net result would be a deterioration of at least 0.5 points of GDP, or €15 billion.
Why the Figure Is a Minimum
The IGF could not produce a “closed” estimate that would incorporate the economic consequences of a slowdown. The effects of uncertainty, a potential rise in interest rates, or the halt of certain investments are not included in the 0.5 points of GDP. “Fifteen billion is just the accounting exercise,” Mathieu Plane, an economist and deputy director at the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), told franceinfo.
The absence of a 2027 budget does not mean all public spending is frozen. “There are several perimeters: the state, local authorities, and social security,” Plane noted. A special law can constrain some state spending but cannot prevent other spending, particularly social spending, from rising spontaneously. Without a finance law, certain tax measures designed to increase revenue cannot be adopted either.
The Pension Example
Take pensions. According to Bercy, their cost will rise spontaneously by about €12 billion in 2027 — roughly €6 billion from inflation indexation and €6 billion from demographic changes. But “at constant legislation, that would happen anyway,” Plane said. In other words, these additional expenses would also occur with a normally adopted budget if no measures are taken to limit them.
The difference lies in the measures a new finance bill or social security financing bill could introduce to curb this growth. The government is considering, for instance, a lower indexation of pensions for the wealthiest retirees. If such a measure cannot be adopted, the expected savings would not materialize. Thus, the government could not act on a portion of the €12 billion spontaneous pension increase — not the entire sum.
The Paradox of a Prolonged Special Law
The same logic applies to revenue. Plane cites the example of the exceptional contribution on large corporate profits. Without new tax legislation to renew it, the state would lose this revenue. A prolonged special law therefore has a paradoxical effect: it constrains some state spending while simultaneously preventing new measures to reduce other spending or increase revenue.
Another scenario puts the €15 billion in perspective. In a separate report published in July, four economists commissioned by the Ministry of Economy estimated that with “unchanged policy” — meaning no new measures to repair the accounts — the deficit would spontaneously reach 5.9% of GDP in 2027, driven by rising debt charges, pensions, health, and defense spending.
A Robust but Nuanced Figure
Ultimately, the €15 billion figure is consistent with the scale of public finance deterioration in the very specific scenario of a special law prolonged for almost all of 2027. Plane called the estimate “fairly robust.” However, presenting this sum as the “cost” of a budget absence is reductive. The special law would not mechanically generate €15 billion in new spending. Rather, it would prevent the implementation of some savings and new revenues that a 2027 budget could introduce, while certain expenses continue to rise on their own.
