M_DESC: Météo France warns a severe heat wave could hit the country next week, with temperatures potentially reaching 40°C and breaking monthly records. The peak is expected around Thursday.
After a weekend that saw temperatures breach the 30°C mark across many regions, Météo France has issued a stark warning: the heat is only just beginning. A significant shift in atmospheric circulation is set to draw a mass of scorching air from the Maghreb, via Spain, pushing the country toward what could become a dangerous heat wave by mid-week.
A Scorching Timeline: From Warm to Extreme
The national forecaster’s bulletin on Sunday confirmed that the “disturbed westerly flow” has been pushed further north, allowing sunshine to dominate and temperatures to climb sharply. The intensification will be rapid. By Monday, the heat threshold will engulf the north, with 30°C forecast for Normandy and Île-de-France, rising to 33°C in the Mediterranean Occitanie region. Tuesday will see the Grand-Est region swelter at 31°C, while the mercury continues to climb in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
The peak, however, is expected between Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast models paint a blistering picture for the latter half of the week:
- Wednesday: A vast majority of regions will see temperatures between 32°C and 36°C.
- Thursday: The heat will become extreme. Local highs could hit 38°C in Nevers, 37°C in Paris and Brive, 36°C in Lyon, and 35°C in Toulouse. Only Brittany and parts of the Basque and Norman coasts will remain relatively cooler, staying below 30°Cli>
La Chaîne Météo anticipates that temperatures will frequently sit 10°C seasonal norms, with the possibility of locally reaching 40°C and shattering monthly heat records.
Episode or Heat Wave? A Crucial Distinction
For an event to be classified as a heat wave, the ITN must exceed 23.4°C for three consecutive days, with at least one day surpassing 25.3°C. The exceptional heat of late May saw the indicator reach 24.8°C, a record for the month, but it fell short of the duration criteria.
This June event presents a new challenge due to its proximity to the summer solstice. “The nights are short, which limits the nocturnal drop in temperatures. As early as Wednesday and Thursday, we will have minimums of 18, 20, or even 22°C, so the ITN climbs,” Perrot explained. He added that while the late May episode was exceptional for its precocity, this one will be marked by “very high temperatures, well above seasonal norms.”
