WASHINGTON — The United States is preparing to deliver an unambiguous message to dozens of nations: align with Washington’s artificial intelligence framework or risk exclusion from its coalition, according to a US official and an internal draft reviewed by Reuters. The move marks a significant escalation in the technological rivalry between Washington and Beijing, as both powers race to dominate the most transformative technology of the century.
The draft letter, prepared by the State Department, targets the 35 signatories of a US “AI Opportunity Statement” signed in June. These countries include members of the non-binding Pax Silica framework — a Washington-led initiative launched last year to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals — as well as other nations expressing interest in aligning AI cooperation with the United States.
An Ultimatum With Global Stakes
The core message is blunt: countries cannot participate in both the US-led Pax Silica and China’s competing “World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization,” launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in July. The Chinese initiative promotes open-weight technology as a direct challenge to US influence in the fast-moving sector.
“To be part of everything is to be part of nothing,” the draft letter states. “Signature of the Pax Silica Declaration is not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment.” It urges countries to “choose deliberately” on AI, adding that membership “cannot be held alongside membership in duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own.” The letter does not explicitly mention China, but the implication is clear.
Reuters could not determine when the letter will be sent or whether it might be amended. The draft is undated. The State Department declined to comment on “purportedly leaked internal documents,” while the Chinese and Kazakh embassies in Washington did not respond immediately to requests for comment.
Kazakhstan: The Trigger Point
The catalyst for Washington’s hardline stance is Kazakhstan, the only country known to have joined both initiatives. The Central Asian nation, rich in critical minerals essential for advanced technologies, signed onto Pax Silica in June — touted by the US as the first country in the region to do so. But its simultaneous participation in China’s coalition has set off alarm bells in Washington.
US officials drafted the letter to make clear that “you can’t have it both ways,” a US official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It’s difficult to see how a country can credibly position themselves as trusted partners in one technology ecosystem while simultaneously signing up for an initiative designed by China to advance a competing vision for AI.”
Strategic Calculus: Starving China of Resources
The ultimatum reflects a broader US strategy to starve China of the resources needed to build the most sophisticated AI systems — technology that could confer military or economic dominance. Pax Silica aims to push allies toward joint projects, export controls, and reduced reliance on adversaries for critical minerals, AI models, and the semiconductor chips that power them.
The race has reached a pivotal moment. Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary systems from US companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. The exponential growth of AI capabilities — including the ability to hack autonomously — has forced a global reckoning over the technology’s power.
Beijing, meanwhile, is weighing restrictions on overseas access to some of its leading AI models, underscoring the growing tension between its stringent national security agenda and the global race for AI supremacy.
Critical Minerals as Leverage
China has already used its near-monopolies over critical minerals as a retaliatory weapon in the tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump. Washington has ramped up efforts to source these minerals domestically and from allies, making Kazakhstan’s vast reserves strategically vital.
Members of Pax Silica gain access to shared investment opportunities in AI-related projects. Signatories of the AI Opportunity Statement have symbolically agreed on a “common purpose” and “shared vision” with the US, according to the statement posted on the State Department’s website.
But the draft letter signals that symbolic alignment is no longer sufficient. As the AI race intensifies, Washington is demanding a clear, exclusive commitment — and the stakes for nations caught between two superpowers have never been higher.
