United States forces are set to depart their final bases in Iraq by Wednesday, bringing an end to a military presence spanning more than twenty years and stirring fresh concerns over Iran’s regional influence and security gaps that Islamic State militants could exploit.
The withdrawal was agreed upon by Washington and Baghdad in 2024 and is now being carried out under President Donald Trump’s administration. Iran and its allied armed factions in Iraq have hailed the departure as a victory.
Tehran Poised to Fill the Void
Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli said Iran stands to gain strategically from the pullout, noting that the US military presence had long served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in the country.
He warned that Iran-backed militia groups may now push for greater sway over Iraq’s security apparatus and political decision-making in the absence of American forces.
Fears of a Security Vacuum
Despite those concerns, some Iraqi officials and security figures have cautioned that the country may not yet be prepared to manage its own security without US support.
Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zobaie said Iraqis have long sought full sovereignty but fear the withdrawal could open a dangerous security vacuum.
A History of Intervention and Return
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and pulled its forces out in 2011. American troops returned in 2014 to assist Iraqi forces in the campaign against Islamic State, which was territorially defeated in Iraq in 2017.
Islamic State Resurgence Risk
Some Iraqi security officials fear the withdrawal could give Islamic State room to rebuild its sleeper-cell network.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said the loss of US intelligence, logistical support and drone capabilities could make it easier for the group to regroup.
Iraqi security forces have also reported recently uncovering a suspected Islamic State plot to carry out suicide attacks around the time of the US withdrawal.
- The withdrawal was agreed by Washington and Baghdad in 2024.
- Iran and allied armed groups describe the departure as a victory.
- Analysts warn of expanded Iranian influence over Iraqi security and politics.
- Officials fear Islamic State could exploit intelligence and logistical gaps.
