A landmark memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is set to be formally signed in a ceremony hosted by Pakistan in Geneva, marking a pivotal step toward de-escalation after months of open conflict. The development caps a whirlwind of diplomatic activity, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declaring the war officially over and signaling that negotiations on a comprehensive final agreement could begin as early as Friday.
War is Over, Nuclear Talks Loom
Addressing diplomats in Tehran, Araghchi confirmed that hostilities ceased on Monday and the memorandum of understanding is scheduled to take effect on Friday. He outlined a two-phase negotiation process for future talks with Washington. The initial stage will tackle immediate operational issues, including the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the US naval blockade, and reconstruction efforts. A subsequent phase will confront the more complex matters of Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, with the ultimate goal of reaching a durable final agreement.
“The continuation of the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory is a violation of the memorandum of understanding,” Araghchi warned, linking the deal’s integrity to the situation in Lebanon and stating that any future Israeli military action against the country would “never be accepted.”
Intelligence Doubts and Internal Debate
Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, the deal has faced internal skepticism within the US administration. According to Axios, CIA Director John Ratcliffe informed President Donald Trump and senior officials that US intelligence harbors serious doubts about Iran’s willingness to make genuine nuclear concessions. Ratcliffe, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, reportedly raised concerns, while Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner advocated for the agreement. A White House official maintained that the memorandum meets the administration’s red lines that Trump remains the final decision-maker.
Hormuz Transit and Regional Connectivity
Confidence in the deal’s practical impact remains fragile in the commercial sector. The chief executive of Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines, the world’s largest tanker operator, told the Financial Times that shipowners will not resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks until the agreement is proven to be “material” and translated into safe conditions on the water.
In a sign of shifting regional dynamics, Iran’s Energy Minister announced that the country will soon connect its electricity grid with Qatar’s, with studies in their final stages. He added that similar grid links with other Gulf countries are also under consideration.
Resistance and Rhetoric
Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, offered a defiant assessment of the conflict to Iranian media, claiming the war “discredited America” and hastened the “collapse” of Israel. He asserted that regional armed groups independently chose to confront the United States in support of Iran and warned that Hezbollah’s displayed capabilities are “only the tip of the iceberg.” Qaani described the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait as being “like wax in the hands” of allied forces, while commending Iran’s diplomats for negotiating from a position of strength.
Next Steps: Inspections and a Final Deal
Vice President Vance has moved to manage expectations regarding the current document, describing the memorandum as “a very general document” spanning about a page and a half, with specifics to be determined during technical negotiations. In a series of interviews, he confirmed that nuclear inspectors will “absolutely” be allowed to return to Iran as a core component of the agreement, with the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency poised to help destroy the country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. Vance also indicated that President Trump may release the full text of the agreement before the formal Friday signing.
